We Need Wardley Maps More Than Ever
Many are building businesses for a world that no longer exists. Instead, the best strategy in an AI age (accelerating change) is to be adaptable and learn how to predict the next ripe place to attack.
Author’s Note: I rewrote this post twice because I felt like I was taking too long to get to the point. However, if you prefer a lot of context, I’m happy to keep going deep. Shoot me a reply with your preferences!
I’m a huge fan of Wardley Maps. It’s a framework that helps entrepreneurs compete in a dynamic marketplace. In an era of accelerating change, the ability to assess your current situation rapidly and make good decisions is crucial for success.
My key takeaways from the framework are as follows.
All technology follows an inevitable, 4-phase evolution.
Genesis (i.e., the first transistor invented in a lab)
Custom
Product
Commodity/utility (i.e., trillions of transistors on billions of CPUs)
All technology stands upon other technology.
Your app runs on Vercel.
Vercel runs in the cloud.
Cloud data centers need software and hardware.
Hardware needs networking and electricity.
Electricity comes from power plants.
All parts of the stack are evolving at once.
Your industry may be immature, relying on delivering custom software solutions.
Over time, patterns will emerge, and products will come out.
Also, the tech you rely on will also become better/cheaper products and commodities.
Becoming aware of where all the pieces are in their own evolution helps you make better business decisions in the following ways.
Knowing when to outsource vs build your own.
Knowing when the industry is about to shift from custom to commodity.
Knowing what strategies and tactics work best in which environment.
I could go on and on, but I think it’s best to learn from the man himself. Simon Wardley came up with this while attempting to navigate his business in a complex and changing tech environment. The resulting framework makes it easy for other CEOs/business leaders to assess where they are and where things are going.
And in the age of AI, where we are seeing a massive acceleration of change, places within the map are going from genesis to commodity in months to years instead of years to decades. This increased speed means that some businesses will be building towards a future that is already out of date, and it’s better to abandon and figure out the next place to attack.
If this sounds intriguing to you, I’d highly suggest reading the first five chapters of his series here.
Below is a sample map from Simon showing both a value chain and where the different pieces of said chain exist at each part of their own evolution. Being able to view your business in the same way can be powerful.